The 2025 Nitto ATP Finals: A Preview

It is officially that time of the year. With the top eight women battling it out in Riyadh this week at their year-end finals, the men are gearing up for their showdown starting November 9th in Turin, Italy. Things are starting to get exciting as new information is released in preparation for the event surrounding the player list and draw, so check out these three key takeaways heading into the most intense week on the calendar. 

Seven Men Confirmed to Participate, One Spot Up For Grabs

Typically in the summer, the first man to qualify for the ATP Finals is revealed. To qualify, a player must finish the year ranked inside the top seven. So, if a player has earned enough points that even if they lose every match they play before November that they will stay inside the top seven, then they're good to go. The obvious few claimed their spots early: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Novak Djokovic. There is always a bit of competition in the fall as the guest list narrows, but usually by now there's a pretty clear idea of who will be taking the trek out to Turin. Not this year. In addition to the four already mentioned, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur have also earned their place in the draw. But that key eighth spot is still up for grabs, and the man who will be joining the party is still not confirmed. It all rests on this: 

Felix Auger-Aliassime has raced up the rankings this fall and slid into the eighth spot after reaching the final in Paris last week. Had he won it, he would have amassed enough points to punch his ticket. He was defeated, however, by Jannik Sinner, but passed Lorenzo Musetti and is leading him 3,845 points to 3,735. Now, Musetti is currently competing in Athens, Greece, at a 250-level event. While this may seem insignificant, his results in Greece this week will determine if he can push Auger-Aliassime aside and reclaim the eighth spot. To do this, he must win the event. And currently, he's in the semi-finals and set to play Sebastian Korda on Friday. Auger-Aliassime will just have to monitor Musetti's progress and hope for the best, while everything rests on the Italian's shoulders. 

Photo credit: ATP Tour

The Groups are Revealed

Even though not all eight players are confirmed to participate, they have already been sorted into two groups of four. The tournament is formatted in two stages: a round-robin, where each player in each group plays a minimum of three matches and competes against the other three men in the pack. From there, the two players with the best results in each group push on to the semifinals, and the draw continues there in single-elimination form. The group dynamics are particularly crucial to analyze, and will help experts make comfortable predictions as to who will advance to the final four. 

The first group, named after 8-time grand slam champion Jimmy Connors, contains Carlos Alcaraz (1), Novak Djokovic (4), Taylor Fritz (6), and Alex de Minaur (7). It is important to remember that seeding in the event doesn't necessarily match up to a player's PIF ATP Ranking. Group two, titled Bjorn Borg Group after the 5-time consecutive Wimbledon victor, holds Jannik Sinner (2), Alexander Zverev (3), Ben Shelton (5), and the big question mark: either Lorenzo Musetti or Felix Auger-Aliassime, depending on the Italian's results in Athens this week. On paper, Alcaraz and Djokovic are expected to prevail in Group One, but anyone who has kept up with the tour this year knows that the Serbian isn't in the best shape. Depending on his level here, which can't be predicted ahead of the event, there may be opportunities for Fritz and de Minaur to shake things up. Alcaraz, too, has experienced some unpredictability after an early exit in Paris. Fortunately, his conqueror, Cam Norrie, isn't anywhere close to qualifying. Meanwhile in Borg's quartet, Sinner is a clear favorite to reach the semi-finals and win the event. Zverev and Shelton will be hard to gauge, as the German is making a late-season surge while the American has cooled off after a big summer. 

Photo credit: ATP Tour

Will We Witness an Alcaraz-Sinner Epic? 

It's obvious. Whenever these two guys are in the same draw, everyone thinks the same thing: when will they collide? For a "Sinacaraz" epic to even be possible, they first must advance through their respective groups to the semifinals. This is a very realistic scenario, as they have been the tour frontrunners the past two years and have together claimed the past eight grand slams titles, four apiece. But Alcaraz's early exit in Paris makes things a bit shaky. Fortunately, he's had a few weeks to take some time off and get an early trip into Italy to get adjusted to the conditions and prepare early. While Alcaraz's path through a draw has not always been smooth and there are famous examples to prove it, when the moment is big he can typically raise his level to match up. That has been true in grand slams this year, and at an event that is almost a major's caliber, he should be able to do the same. 

There are no worries for Sinner who has played flawless tennis as of late. He is the clear favorite to walk away with the trophy for a second year in a row, and should have no trouble making it through the group stage. He recently defeated groupmate Zverev in Paris, 6-0, 6-1, and the indoor conditions are similar enough that when these two play there's a very concrete expected result. Sinner also tested his luck against Ben Shelton in Paris, and handled him comfortably in two sets. It's hard to see Auger-Aliassime or Musetti putting a dent in him, either. So based on results, it is possible that these two could encounter each other in the final. There are a few layers to rip through first, but you can probably count on a Alcaraz-Sinner battle to close out a packed year of tennis.

Photo credit: ATP Tour

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Written by William Turvey. Top photo credit: ATP Tour