The Takeaways of Wimbledon Week One

It's Monday, and we are officially in the back half of the draw at the Championships this year. The past week has brought some fascinating results which have both raised questions and helped serve as a status update of the tours. With some surprising upsets defining the draw and some dark horses still in the mix as we head into the final seven days in London, it's time for the three biggest takeaways from the first week of Wimbledon.  

Sabalenka Remains Slam-Less in 2026. Why?

"Right now I am world no. 1. Level wise today, I wasn't world no. 1," said Aryna Sabalenka in press shortly after a 6-2, 7-6 defeat to 14th seed Naomi Osaka. While it seems like a rather blatant statement about her performance on Sunday, this tournament hasn't been much of an exception this season. A final in Australia and a quarter-final in Paris added to this unfortunate result means that Sabalenka hasn't won a grand slam this season, though she has been able to stay on top of the WTA tour. So what went wrong in her match against Osaka? And what will she need to work on to arrive in New York as the favorite later this summer?

Photo credit: Adrian Scottow from London, England, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

To be frank, Sabalenka didn't really lose this match---Osaka won it. The Japanese star was incredibly proactive in rallies, sinking her teeth into a point early to counter the barrage of power coming at her from across the net. She made Sabalenka look sluggish as she dragged her around the court, beginning points with well-placed serves which put the no. 1 seed in an awkward position from the start, before moving forward offensively and finishing the point with crisp winners. Sabalenka was not able to find a rhythm, and even as the two held even in a nail-bitingly close second set, it always felt as though Osaka had the upper hand. 

One of the few factors that Sabalenka can be blamed for in this loss is her serve, one of the most consequential parts of her game. Back in 2022, the shot which would later emerge as a strength of her toolkit completely collapsed, leading her to hit 428 double faults across the season. This shot seems to be the ignition of a self-destructive bomb. When it isn't working, and a keen opponent like Osaka can recognize that flaw and take advantage of it, it seems to have a deadly impact on the rest of her performance. With just 55% of her first serves hit in on Sunday, Sabalenka couldn't maintain the dominating position she likes to hold. To avoid a scenario like this in the future, she'll have to rely more heavily on the firepower she possesses in the rest of her game. She likes to hit big serves and finish points quickly. But her groundstrokes are brilliant, and if she can figure out a way to hold out in rallies longer when a big serve doesn't hand her the immediate advantage, I can see her seven matches in NYC going much better.

Photo credit: © Rolex/Jon Buckle

Unlike RG, the Top Men's Contenders are on a Collision Course

Just a little over a month ago, we were heading into the second week of the season's second slam, Roland Garros, but the draw was much more open. Big names like Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic had been sent packing early on, while other names who could potentially stir up trouble like Taylor Fritz had also faced similar fates. 2nd seed Alexander Zverev kept his head down and did his job, driving down a clear path to victory to win a well-deserved first grand slam. But this time around, most of the top dogs are still in the mix, meaning that high-profile matchups are destined to come our way soon. So, who is looking especially dangerous as the draw gets even more crowded?

Let's start with Novak Djokovic. As of late, excluding the French Open, he seems to be hovering around the second tier of players at grand slams. He plays well in his first four, five, or six matches, but when he encounters a player in a higher caliber---Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz---the result isn't so pretty. Wimbledon 2025? Semi final loss to Sinner. Semi-final loss to Alcaraz at the US Open last summer. Final loss to Alcaraz in Australia. In Paris last month, Joao Fonseca got past him after he lost the first two sets, but Djokovic hasn't let that happen yet. After winning the first two sets, he lost the third to both Arthur Rinderknech and Roman Safiullin in the third and fourth rounds, respectively, but he quickly bounced back to win it in four both times. He's due to face a great opponent in Felix Auger-Aliassime tomorrow in the quarterfinals, but the Canadian had a grueling five-set match in his last few hours on court. If Djokovic is on, there's no reason why he shouldn't be able to get past FAA.

Photo credit: © Rolex/Antoine Couvercelle

Meanwhile, Jannik Sinner takes on unseeded Jan-Lennard Struff in his quarterfinal. Should the weather not be too gnarly, as the Italian seems to have an adversity to heat, he's the clear favorite in that one. Sinner has never lost a match to the German, so more likely than not we'll see a Sinner-Djokovic semi-final. The other half of the draw is much more unpredictable, as 2nd seed Alexander Zverev, Roland Garros finalist Flavio Cobolli, and American Taylor Fritz are all still competing on the second day of the round of 16, and they're joined by a lineup of dangerous underdogs, like trickster Alexander Bublik and veteran Grigor Dimitrov. While there are too many cooks in the kitchen on this side to make an accurate prediction, Zverev shouldn't have too much trouble in his next few matches unless he draws Taylor Fritz, as the American has won seven consecutive matches against him. Should Zverev make it to the finals and encounter Jannik Sinner, he'll have much more of a shot than he's ever had: Sinner hasn't been playing top form lately, and with a boost of confidence after his Roland Garros victory, that one could be close. 

On the Women's Side, Americans and Floridians have been Putting on a Show

In the women's bracket, there's one country that's been excelling by sending many of its players deep into the draw at Wimbledon. Considering the United States's 250th anniversary was just a few days ago, it's fitting that we now have an all-American quarter-final matchup between Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula lined up for tomorrow on Centre Court. While they're the top American names who have competed at Wimbledon over the past week, there are more Americans, and Floridians, who have made some big runs this year. Let's review the results.

Photo credit: © Rolex/Antoine Couvercelle

Despite being only 18, 16th seed Iva Jovic made a big statement this week. She took down her first opponent, Jaqueline Cristian in straight sets before facing a brutal test: Tatjana Maria. Maria, a German, is a grass court specialist: her slice-heavy game has seen her reach the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and win the 2025 Queen's Club Championships. Despite Jovic's higher ranking, I would have had Maria as the favorite in this one, but I would have been wrong. Jovic refused to let Maria work into the rallies with her tricky forehand slice, always playing an offensive game to end points quickly. She shut her dangerous opponent out, 6-1, 6-2. She then took down 18th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in three before eventually losing out to Jessica Pegula in the fourth round, though she did nab the first set from the 4th seed. 

Meanwhile, Floridian star Madison Keys has been playing beautifully despite some disappointing results as of late. She took down fellow American Kayla Day and home favorite Katie Swan in the first and second rounds, respectively, before battling past last year's finalist Amanda Anisimova in the third round. Anisimova, who is from Miami herself, won the first set 6-3 at a tournament she is very familiar with, but the more experienced Keys was able to work around her and win the next too, 6-2, 6-3. Keys will now face Linda Noskova in the fourth round, and should she win, she'll join Pegula and Gauff in the quarterfinals. If these three women continue to play the level they've been demonstrating thus far, it's not unlikely that we could have an American champion walking away with the silverware. 

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By: Will Turvey. Top photo credit: © Rolex/Antoine Couvercelle

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